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11/10/2008
The Brattle Group Projects $1.5 to $2.0 Trillion Investment Needed in the U.S. Electric Utility Industry by 2030
The U.S. utility industry will have to invest between $1.5 and $2.0 trillion between 2010 and 2030 to maintain current levels of reliable energy service for customers throughout the country, according to a new report issued today by The Brattle Group.
The findings are detailed in “Transforming America’s Power Industry: The Investment Challenge 2010-2030,” presented today by Peter Fox-Penner, a principal of The Brattle Group, at the Edison Electric Institute’s 43rd Financial Conference. The report was sponsored by the Edison Foundation.
All types of new generation capacity will be needed, including natural gas, coal, nuclear, and renewables. Nearly 40 gigawatts of new renewable capacity will be needed just to meet state requirements. Significantly, capital spending to upgrade distribution and transmission facilities nationwide may surpass investment in new generation, the study found. Spending on “smart grid” technologies to ramp up efficiency—along with new power lines to integrate renewable electricity sources—will account for much of that spending.
The report, which follows highly publicized preliminary results introduced in April 2008 at an Edison Foundation conference, analyzes four possible scenarios that measure the impact of energy efficiency and demand response program implementation on investment needs and new plant construction. In the base case scenario, which does not account for new climate policies, the total investment needs are projected to reach $1.5 trillion. Implementation of a federal carbon policy would significantly increase the capital cost and change the mix of new generation capacity; for instance, a simplified model of one scenario with carbon controls would require an increase in total capital spending to $2 trillion.
The report was written by Dr. Fox Penner, principals Marc Chupka and Robert Earle, and associate Ryan Hledik.
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