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April 26, 2011
Brattle Principal Joe Wharton and Research Analyst Jenny Palmer Present Results from PG&E’s Demand Response Programs to the California Demand Response Measurement and Evaluation Committee

On Tuesday, April 26, 2011 Brattle principal Dr. Joe Wharton and research analyst Jenny Palmer delivered a presentation at a statewide Demand Response Load Impact Workshop sponsored by the California Demand Response Measurement and Evaluation Committee (DRMEC) regarding results from the demand response (DR) programs enrollment forecasting model prepared for PG&E. The DRMEC is a formal committee operating under the auspices of the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) to oversee the evaluation of statewide demand response activities. The presentation, "PG&E’s Non-Residential Enrollment Forecast," was based on work sponsored by PG&E and performed by a team from Brattle’s San Francisco office. In the presentation, Dr. Wharton and Ms. Palmer laid out a set of econometric and other analytical methodologies that Brattle used for 14 DR programs for non-residential customers, which supported the annual filings by PG&E on April 1, 2011. Following CPUC Load Impact Protocols, PG&E also engaged Brattle to combine these enrollment forecasts with independently developed forecasts of load reduction per enrollee. The product of these forecasts determines the amount of megawatts (MW) of long-run DR resources that PG&E expects to develop to meet California’s policy of aggressively pursuing demand-side energy solutions. The results of the analysis indicate growth in enrollment for all but one of PG&E’s 14 continuing DR programs. The largest absolute growth is attributed to the Time of Use (TOU) rate. There is also significant growth in the new Peak Day Pricing (PDP) program, which takes advantage of the systematic installation of interval meters for medium- and small-sized PG&E business customers in the next few years. The forecast shows the dramatic impact of the CPUC’s policy of defaulting applicable customers on the PDP rate but always allowing them to opt out to Time of Use (TOU) rates if they prefer. By 2014, all PG&E non-residential customers will be paying time-differentiated rates, which encourage less electricity usage and thus bill savings when power costs are the highest. The model forecasts equally important growth in the enrollment of customers in PG&E’s ongoing DR programs, including Aggregator Managed Portfolio (AMP), Base Interruptible Program (BIP), Capacity Bidding Program (CBP), the PeakChoice programs, and SmartAC. To view Brattle’s presentation, please follow the link below.