Brattle Experts Conduct a Study to Determine New York’s Grid Flexibility Potential in 2030 and 2040
Prepared for the New York State Energy Research & Development Authority (NYSERDA) and the New York Department of Public Service (NY DPS)
Brattle energy analysts recently prepared a study for the New York State Energy Research & Development Authority (NYSERDA) and the New York Department of Public Service (NY DPS) that assesses the cost-effective, achievable potential for grid flexibility in the state in 2030 and 2040.
The Brattle team conducted a grid flexibility analysis, modeling 16 grid flexibility options – including both automated and behavioral responses – and estimating all cost-effective grid capacity that can be developed at achievable, voluntary participation rates. The analysis also included in-depth interviews with over 60 industry experts from 27 organizations, survey responses from 70 stakeholders, and a technical conference to identify barriers and solutions related to specific grid flexibility opportunities.
Key takeaways from the study include:
- New York’s 2040 grid flexibility potential is more than six times the state’s current capability and equates to around 25% of the 2040 net system peak demand
- All modeled grid flexibility options will be cost-effective by 2040 due to their value in a highly decarbonized power system
- By 2040, grid flexibility could avoid nearly $3 billion/yr in power system costs, much of which could be used to compensate participants, with a portion retained as cost savings for all ratepayers
- Distribution deferral value is significant in locations with potential capacity constraints due to load growth
- Default dynamic pricing could drive 700 MW to 1,800 MW of demand reduction, and provides all customers with an opportunity to save
- Electric vehicle (EV) charging represents the single largest opportunity for grid flexibility
- Over 200 MW of behind-the-meter (BTM) battery flexibility could be unlocked in New York City when the permitting process is finalized
- Heat pump flexibility could play an important role in addressing winter resource adequacy concerns, though further technical development and experimentation is needed
- All New York utilities have significant grid flexibility potential, but Important barriers need to be addressed to reach the scale of grid flexibility expansion discussed in the report
The Brattle team included Principal Ryan Hledik, Managing Energy Associate Akhilesh Ramakrishnan, Energy Research Associate Kate Peters, and Energy Analysts Sophie Edelman and Alison Savage Brooks. The full summary report and technical appendix are available below.
