Tom Chapman Quoted in a Recent RTO Insider Article on the Jump in Ontario Capacity Prices
Principal Tom Chapman was quoted in a recent RTO Insider article on the jump in capacity prices in IESO’s latest capacity auction. As summarized in the article, clearing prices hit a record $645/MW-day (CAD) for summer 2026 – nearly double the summer prices from the previous year’s auction– and $725/MW-day for winter, more than five times the previous $139/MW-day.
Mr. Chapman explained that, while the jump is significant, any immediate price impact for Ontario’s ratepayers will be minimal, as the auction only accounts for about 5% of the province’s installed capacity. He also noted that, “the surprise was perhaps on the supply side. While demand response did increase its contribution by about 40 MW, a large New York gas generator did not participate in the auction. So, [with the] combination of the increase in target capacity and the reduction in supply, there’s about a 400-MW swing from this year to last year.”
Commenting more broadly, Mr. Chapman said, “When you take these results, along with other recent results – in PJM, it cleared at the cap; MISO, where they had record clearing prices; Quebec, where they were a net importer in 2024 and they’re facing strong load growth and challenging hydrological conditions – it speaks to a broader tightening of supply and demand across the Northeast markets.” He added, “I think that should really focus people’s minds on the … need for urgent and quick decision-making. It may require some hard decisions … like which resources should be given priority to connect.”
The RTO Insider article, “Big Jump in Ontario Capacity Prices Signals Tightening Supplies,” is available below behind a paywall.
