Brattle Reports Analyze the Economic Impact of Retiring Two Illinois Nuclear Plants
Prepared for Constellation Energy Generation
In two new related reports prepared for Constellation Energy Generation, Brattle energy experts assess the economic and power sector impacts of relicensing versus retiring two Illinois nuclear plants – the Dresden Clean Energy Center (DCEC) and Clinton Clean Energy Center (CCEC). Their analyses find that extending the plants’ operations would prevent significant carbon emissions and provide substantial economic impacts in terms of GDP and jobs.
Both studies compare two scenarios: one in which the respective plants continue operating until around 2050 and another in which they retire as scheduled before 2030. The authors find that, absent the nuclear plants, significantly less carbon-free power would be generated annually, leading to increased fossil fuel generation and emissions since renewable generation would not fully replace the lost nuclear generation. The shutdown of the plants would also raise wholesale power prices in Illinois and throughout the broader region in the near term – resulting in moderately higher electricity bills for customers – and have several negative economic impacts for Illinois, especially in the areas where the plants are located.
Key findings from the individual reports, both authored by Principal Dr. Dean Murphy and Managing Energy Associate Dr. Wonjun Chang, are available below.
Dresden Clean Energy Center (DCEC)
Retiring the DCEC (compared to relicensing in 2049, for Unit 2, and 2051, for Unit 3) would:
- Increase emissions by over 76 million metric tons of CO2 (MMT CO2) over 20 years, or around 3.8 MMT annually on average
- Reduce Illinois state GDP by a total of $21 billion, averaging $1,016 million of state GDP loss annually
- Lower in-state employment by an average of 1,100 jobs annually, including both direct and secondary employment effects
- Require an additional 3.7 GW of renewables and storage builds and an additional 0.5 GW of natural gas builds in order to replace the 1.8 GW loss from the DCEC (a more than 2-to-1 replacement ratio)
Clinton Clean Energy Center (CCEC):
Retiring the CCEC at the end of 2026 (compared to relicensing through 2046) would:
- Increase emissions by over 34 million metric tons of CO2 (MMT CO2) over 20 years, or around 1.7 MMT annually on average
- Reduce Illinois state GDP by a total of $15 billion, averaging $765 million of state GDP loss annually
- Lower in-state employment by an average of 1,100 jobs annually, including both direct and secondary employment effects
- Require an additional 2.8 GW of renewables and storage builds and nearly 1 GW of natural gas builds in order to replace the 1.1 GW loss from the CCEC (a more than 3-to-1 replacement ratio)
