Forecasting Wireless Broadband Capacity Shortfalls

Mobile data demand is exploding, with aggregate data downloaded quadrupling in the last seven years. New and innovative uses enabled by 5G, as well as the prospect of 6G applications, point towards further increases in expected demand for mobile network capacity. Unfortunately, the U.S. spectrum landscape appears to be stalled, with no clear prospects for significant spectrum reallocations this year and insufficient bands under consideration for reallocation in the coming years. In this paper we focus on the data traffic on the macro network and examine various sources of demand increase from sources other than terrestrial mobile data demand. We find that if there is significant expected growth in the uptake of fixed wireless services then the data demand may increase significantly and there will be a sizable spectrum deficit in the next 5 to 10 years, over and above what is predicted by our previous work.