Nuclear investment project and portfolio risk analysis

For the city of San Antonio, Texas, members of The Brattle Group analyzed the project and portfolio risk associated with possibly taking a share of a several billion dollar investment in a nuclear power plant (units 3&4 of the South Texas Project 3&4). We estimated the plant’s value and risks in comparison to other generation technologies, taking into account potential changes in natural gas prices, carbon prices, and possible construction cost escalation. We assessed possible economic considerations that would affect the level and volatility of future natural gas prices, as well as the associated revenue streams for both nuclear and gas-fired power plants. We reviewed the nuclear plant’s Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) contract in order to assess construction cost risk, and assisted in the formulation of alternative financing structures for investing in the power plant, as well as possible alternative contracting mechanisms for selling portions of the plant’s output.