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Dr. Carpenter specializes in the fields of energy economics, regulation, corporate planning, pricing policy, and antitrust.

Dr. Carpenter is an expert in the economics and regulation of the natural gas, oil, and electric utility industries. He has provided expert testimony before the British Monopolies and Merger Commission, the Australian Competition Tribunal, various U.S. and Canadian regulatory authorities, and U.S. federal and state courts. In addition, he has testified before the U.S. Congress on issues surrounding the transition of network industries from strict regulation to increased competition and in high-stakes commercial disputes involving the energy industries. These issues have included: stranded investments and contracts; asset valuation and cost of capital; pricing in long-term supply agreements; evaluation of supply, demand, and price forecasting models; the competitive effects of capacity expansions; and the design of innovative regulatory regimes including performance-based regulation. Dr. Carpenter was the lead testifying economist in several of the seminal antitrust and market manipulation cases involving natural gas markets in North America, including State of Illinois v. Panhandle Eastern Pipeline Co. (Fed. Ct. for C.D. Ill) and Energy Transfer Partners, FERC Docket No. IN06-3-003.

Dr. Carpenter has worked extensively with clients throughout Europe, Australia, and New Zealand to help apply lessons on restructuring and regulation from the North American experience. He co-founded Incentives Research, Inc. in 1983 and is the former Chairman of The Brattle Group.

Representative Engagements
Commercial damages for breach of contract
Engaged to provide expert testimony on the magnitude of damages flowing from a problematic IT implementation at a large utility company in Britain during a breach of contract dispute in the High Court in London. Expert report involved the quantitative analysis of market share changes and increased labor and other costs incurred as a result of the alleged breach.
Natural gas market manipulation
On behalf of the Enforcement Litigation Staff of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), was the lead economic expert witness in an investigation as to whether a natural gas trading company manipulated the price of natural gas at a specific location through its trading patterns on the Intercontinental Exchange trading platform.
Australian natural gas price review arbitrations
Principal economic expert in commercial arbitrations conducted in the states of Victoria, South Australia, Queensland, and Western Australia to determine the price of natural gas under long-term contracts. Evidence typically dealt with the economic theory surrounding long-term contracts and the prevailing market price of gas determined on the basis of statistical and other analysis of third party contracts.

California energy crisis litigation
Testified before the FERC regarding anti-competitive activity by the affiliate of a large interstate pipeline company holding a large block of the pipeline’s capacity to California. Testimony examined natural gas price formation in California, concentration of firm pipeline capacity holdings, utilization of pipelines serving the California gas market, withholding of pipeline capacity by the affiliate, and harm to California gas and electricity consumers during the Energy Crisis. The matter was settled when the pipeline company agreed to pay $1.6 billion to be refunded to California ratepayers.
Alaska natural gas contract pricing
On behalf of an Alaskan gas utility, testified in several matters before the Regulatory Commission of Alaska regarding the reasonableness of the price terms in long-term gas supply agreements submitted for approval to the regulator. The testimony explained that the price terms were appropriate given supply conditions in the local gas market and ratepayers’ need for reliable gas supplies.
Before the National Energy Board of Canada, TransCanada PipeLines Limited, NOVA Gas Transmission Ltd., Foothills Pipe Lines Ltd. - Business and Services Restructuring Proposal and Mainline Tolls for 2012-2013, Docket RH-003-2011
September 2011, May 2012
Before the Alberta Utilities Commission, Rate Regulation Initiative, Proceeding 566, ATCO Gas and ATCO Electric Performance Based Regulation Applications
July 2011, April 2012
In the British High Court of Justice, Queen’s Bench Division, Commercial Court, GB Gas Holdings Limited v. Accenture (expert report)
June 2011
Before the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Kern River Gas Transmission, Docket No. RP04-274
June 2010, September 2010
Before the U.S. Congress, House of Representatives, Subcommittee on Energy Policy, Natural Resources and Regulatory Affairs, Hearings on California Natural Gas Market
July 2009
Before the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Energy Transfer Partners, LP, Energy Transfer Company, ETC Marketing, Ltd., Houston Pipeline Company, Docket No. IN06-3-003
September 2008, May 2009
Before the Régie de L’Énergie, Société en Commandite Gaz Métro Cause Tarifaire 2010, Docket No. R-3690-2009
May 2009
Before the Ontario Energy Board, Multi-year Incentive Rate Regulation for Natural Gas Utilities, Docket EB-2007-0606/0615
August 2007, September 2007, November 2007, December 2007
In the Arbitration between Niska Gas Storage US, LLC and Alenco Inc.
In the Superior Court of the State of California, County of San Diego, Natural Gas Anti-trust Cases I, II, III, & IV
February 2006, May 2006, June 2006 (declarations)
Before the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission, Application for Approval of the Merger of Public Service Enterprise Group and Exelon Corporation, Docket No. A-110550F0160
June 2005, August 2005, September 2005
In the United States District Court for the Northern District of Alabama, Northeastern Division, The City of Huntsville d/b/a Huntsville Utilities v. Proliance Energy, LLC
February 2003, June 2003, February 2005
In the Arbitration between Wellington International Airport Ltd., and Air New Zealand and Qantas Airways Ltd
August 2002
In the United States District Court for the Eastern District of Virginia, Alexandria Division, Hess Energy Inc. v. Lightning Oil Company, Ltd.
July 2002
Before the National Energy Board of Canada, in the matter of TransCanada Pipelines, Ltd. Fair Return Application
March 2002
Before the New Zealand Commerce Commission, Inquiry into Airfield Activities at Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch International Airports
July 2000, August 2001
In the Australian Competition Tribunal, Review of the Trade Practices Act Authorisations for the AGL Cooper Basin Natural Gas Supply Arrangements, on behalf of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission
February 1997
Deposition and Trial Testimony in State of Illinois v. Panhandle Eastern Pipeline Co., (Fed. Ct. for C.D. Ill)
Financial Information Disclosed by Gas Pipelines in Australia: Under Part 23 of the National Gas Rules
October 2019
The Global Context for Alaskan Oil and LNG
December 12, 2016
Presented at Law Seminars International's (LSI) 12th Annual Comprehensive Conference on Alaska Energy Markets and Regulation
Benefits and Costs of Integration in Transmission/Transportation Networks: An Application to Eastern Australia Gas Markets
August 01, 2016
Prepared for APA Group

The report authored by Brattle economists on behalf of APA Group reviews integration in APA’s pipeline operations in Eastern Australia since the acquisition of Epic Energy in December 2012, and identifies the economic costs and benefits associated with integration.

The Global Context for Alaskan LNG
December 07, 2015
Presented to LSI Energy in Alaska Conference
Changing Times – New Uncertainties: Assessing Their Effects on Global Energy and LNG Export Markets
December 08, 2014
Presented at the LSI Energy Markets and Regulation in Alaska Conference, Anchorage, AK
Understanding Natural Gas Markets
September 2014
Published by the American Petroleum Institute
Pipeline Regulatory Issues Arising From Oil and Natural Gas Production Growth in North America
February 2014
Published in Energy Law Advisor
Wholesale Gas Price for AGL’s VPA Proposal for 2014–16 (public version)
February 2014
Prepared for AGL Energy
Outlook for North American Trade in LNG and Oil
October 24, 2013
Presented at the LSI Energy Exports in the Northwest Conference
Estimating the Cost of Equity for Regulated Companies
February 17, 2013
Prepared for the Australian Pipeline Industry Association
The Uncertain Future For ANS LNG Exports
December 03, 2012
Presented at LSI's Energy in Alaska Conference, Anchorage, AK
A Framework for Analyzing Market Manipulation
September 2012
Published in Review of Law & Economics, Volume 8, No. 1
Framework for Assessing Capex and Opex Forecasts as Part of a “Building Blocks” Approach to Revenue/Price Determinations
June 2012
Prepared for the Australian Energy Market Commission
Shale Gas and Pipeline Risk
April 2012
Published in Public Utilities Fortnightly
Incentive Regulation—Design: Key Plan Components I
May 26, 2010
Presented at Alberta Utilities Commission Performance Based Ratemaking workshop, the Van Horne Institute
Price Re-Openers in Natural Gas Supply Contracts: Avoiding Costly Mistakes in Arbitration
Published by The Brattle Group, Inc.
Options for Reforming the Building-Blocks Framework
December 16, 2009
Prepared for The Australian Energy Market Commission
Review of Incentive Power and Regulatory Options in Victoria
December 2009
Prepared for The Australian Energy Market Commission
Australian Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading: Comments by The Brattle Group
March 06, 2007
Published by The Brattle Group, Inc.
The Advent of U.S. Gas Demand Destruction and its Likely Consequences for the Pricing of Future European Gas Supplied
March 16, 2005
Paul R. Carpenter, Carlos Lapuerta, and Morten Frisch
Presented at the GASTECH 2005 Conference, Bilbao, Spain
REX Incentives: PBR Choices that Reflect Firms' Performance Expectations
November 2001
Published in The Electricity Journal
New Pipeline Authorisation and Third-Party Access Tariffs for the Natural Gas Network in Ireland
July 2000
Carlos Lapuerta, Paul R. Carpenter, and Boaz Moselle
Report to the Irish Government
Competition in Gas Pipeline Markets: International Precedent for Regulatory Coverage Decisions
June 2000
Paul R. Carpenter and Judy Chang
Prepared for the National Competition Council of Australia
Methodologies for Establishing National and Cross-Border Systems of Pricing of Access to the Gas System in Europe
February 17, 2000
Paul R. Carpenter, Carlos Lapuerta, and Boaz Moselle
Prepared for the European Commission
A Critique of Light-handed Regulation: The Case of British Gas
January 1999
Published in Northwestern Journal of International Law & Business
Separate Marketing of Natural Gas by Joint Venture Producers in Australia
September 26, 1998
Prepared at the request of Optima Energy for Submission to the Upstream Issues Working Group Australian and New Zealand Minerals and Energy Council
Pipeline Pricing to Encourage Efficient Capacity Resource Decisions, Filed on behalf of Columbia Gas Transmission Corporation, et al., FERC Docket No. PL98-2-000
February 1998
Published by The Brattle Group, Inc.
News & Events
July 31, 2018
Who's Who Legal Identifies Brattle Economists as World's Leading Experts in Consulting

Who’s Who Legal recognized twelve Brattle economists as leading economic consulting experts in the areas of competition, construction, financial advisory and valuation, quantum of damages, and data and e-discovery.

December 12, 2016
Paul Carpenter to Present at LSI Conference on Alaska Energy Markets and Regulation

Brattle Principal Paul Carpenter will present at the Law Seminars International’s (LSI) 12th Annual Comprehensive Conference on Alaska Energy Markets and Regulation, taking place December 12-13, 2016 in Anchorage, AK and via webcast.

August 23, 2016
Report by Brattle Economists Quantifies Economic Benefits Associated with Natural Gas Pipeline Integration

A new report authored by Brattle economists on behalf of APA Group reviews integration in APA’s pipeline operations in Eastern Australia since the acquisition of Epic Energy in December 2012, and identifies the economic costs and benefits associated with integration.

July 11, 2016
Damages Testimony by Brattle Principals Contributes to Favorable Outcome for U.S. Department of the Interior in Gas Pipeline Contract Dispute

Expert testimony by Principals Paul Carpenter and Steve Levine helped to secure a favorable outcome for the U.S. Department of the Interior in a contract dispute with Rockies Express Pipeline LLC.

December 07, 2015
Paul Carpenter to Present at LSI Conference on Energy in Alaska

Brattle principal Paul Carpenter will speak at the upcoming Law Seminars International (LSI) 11th Annual Comprehensive Conference on Energy in Alaska, taking place on December 7 and 8, 2015 in Anchorage, AK.

October 09, 2015
Paul Carpenter and Shaun Ledgerwood to Present at Energy Bar Association Western Chapter’s Second Annual Canadian Program

Brattle principals Paul Carpenter and Shaun Ledgerwood will present at the upcoming Energy Bar Association (EBA) Western Chapter’s Second Annual Canadian Program, taking place on October 9, 2015 in Calgary, Canada.

December 29, 2014
Principal Paul Carpenter Featured in Petroleum News on the Outlook of Alaska’s Oil and Gas Markets

Brattle principal Paul Carpenter has been featured in an article from the December 21, 2014 issue of Petroleum News that discusses the long-term pricing outlook of Alaska’s oil and gas markets.

September 02, 2014
Brattle Consultants Prepare Two Reports for the American Petroleum Institute on Natural Gas and Crude Oil Markets

Brattle consultants have authored two separate reports for the American Petroleum Institute (API) that provide a comprehensive overview of the natural gas and crude oil and product markets.