New Brattle Report Outlines the National Case for a More Distributed Power Grid
Expanding distributed energy resources could avoid more than $600 billion in US power system costs through 2050 (in 2026 dollars) and help utilities respond to uncertain electricity demand.
A new report prepared by Brattle for The Pew Charitable Trusts finds that removing barriers to distributed energy resources (DERs) could meaningfully reduce future electricity costs. Technologies such as distributed solar, battery storage, managed electric vehicle charging, and flexible heating and cooling can help meet growing demand while reducing the need for conventional infrastructure investments.
The report, The National Case for a More Distributed Power Grid, finds that removing key policy barriers could more than quadruple US DER capacity, adding over 400 gigawatts (GW) by 2050 – equivalent to nearly one-third of today’s US power generation fleet. Expanded DER deployment could also give utilities greater flexibility as they plan for uncertain demand from data centers, manufacturing, and electrification.
The report identifies several potential benefits of expanded DER deployment, including:
- $614 billion in avoided power system costs: Expanded DER deployment could avoid an estimated $614 billion in US power system costs through 2050, reducing pressure on electricity rates and benefiting customers broadly.
- $122 in annual household bill savings: By 2050, average household electricity bills could be $122 lower per year in current dollars than under the status quo scenario. These savings would offset roughly half of the projected bill increase above the study’s assumed rate of inflation.
- Less exposure to overbuilding: If anticipated electricity demand falls short, greater reliance on DERs could reduce the cost of overbuilding energy infrastructure by $33 billion between 2030 and 2040 – a reduction of roughly 40%.
- Greater flexibility at the grid edge: Expanding DERs could shift approximately 116 GW of utility-scale storage capacity to distributed storage and other forms of flexibility located close to customers.
- Fewer natural gas additions and lower emissions: Expanded DER deployment could avoid roughly 70 GW of projected net natural gas capacity additions, a 22% reduction equivalent to 175 natural gas-fired plants. It could also reduce cumulative power sector carbon dioxide emissions by an estimated 3% through 2050 relative to the status quo scenario.
The analysis complements Pew’s DER policy playbook, Distributed Energy Can Unleash the Resilient, Affordable Grid of the Future, by estimating the scale and economic value of expanded DER deployment.
Addressing three of the playbook’s recommendations – incorporating DERs into distribution system planning, reducing permitting costs, and reforming interconnection processes – could deliver $266 billion in avoided power system costs through 2050.
The study combines long-term power system modeling with an assessment of opportunities to defer local distribution upgrades. It covers 25 US regions and examines impacts on both the bulk power and distribution systems. The quantified estimates do not capture all potential benefits. Greater resilience and some potential transmission benefits could provide additional value.
The full report was authored by Brattle Principal Ryan Hledik, Energy Associate Kate Peters, Energy Specialist Sophie Edelman, Senior Energy Analyst Prisha Tiwari, Energy Analyst Carly McAdam, and Managing Energy Associate Akhilesh Ramakrishnan. The full report and accompanying technical appendix are available below.
Explore the Interactive Report Highlights
