The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) engaged The Brattle Group consultants to facilitate a stakeholder-driven process for developing future scenarios for the 2014 Long-Term System Assessment (LTSA) study. The engagement was motivated by findings from an earlier report by the Brattle consultants on the ERCOT 2012 LTSA that identified stakeholder input on the scenarios to be crucial for acceptance of the results of the study.
This report on the 2014 LTSA scenario development process is divided into two parts. In Part I we summarize the scenario development process, the resulting scenarios, and the planning assumptions considered for the 2014 LTSA. In Part II, we review aspects of the scenario development process that worked well and those that could be improved in future iterations, as well as recommend a process for updating the scenarios for the 2016 LTSA, if ERCOT chooses a shorter process to do so.