System dynamics modeling of EV demand and load impacts

Brattle assisted Commonwealth Edison in developing an integrated model of supply and demand for light-duty EVs and resulting load impacts. We segmented the car buyer population into archetypal customer groups differentiated by demographics and vehicle preferences, with a multinomial logit function to define the probability of a customer in any given segment choosing an EV over a traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle. Our representation of EV production capacity and supply was structured to evolve endogenously within the model in response to changes in demand and constraints on the rate of capacity expansion. We evaluated the extent and pace of EV adoption under a range of potential technology improvement trajectories and policy scenarios. The Brattle analysis also quantified the magnitude of load and peak impacts from EV charging under different vehicle usage and rate structure paradigms (e.g. home- vs. workplace-charging, individual vs. fleet vehicles, flat volumetric vs. time-of-use rates).